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Hatayspor 1–3 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Wed, Dec 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Meler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor win36%2.74
Konyaspor win35%2.78
Draw29%3.31

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor +050%1.93
Konyaspor +050%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.88
Over49%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Ayoub El Kaabi · Hatayspor
10'🟨Sam Adekugbe · Hatayspor
27'🟨Ibrahim Šehić · Konyaspor
29'⚽Paul-José Mpoku · Konyaspor
31'🟨Sam Adekugbe · Hatayspor
31'🟥Sam Adekugbe · Hatayspor
54'⚽Paul-José Mpoku · Konyaspor
57'🟨Fatih Kurucuk · Hatayspor
68'🟨Isaac Sackey · Hatayspor
68'🟨Serdar Gürler · Konyaspor
71'🟨Sokol Cikalleshi · Konyaspor
81'🟥Ahmet Yılmaz Çalık · Konyaspor
90'⚽Ahmed Hassan · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
7Shots12
2On target5
2Corners5
7Fouls12
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHataysporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.830.62
cards avg (last 5)1.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Hatay Stadyumu
coach days508.00324.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.601.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.321.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.05
dominance (last 5)0.360.53
elo1572.051617.85
elo momentum (last 5)-59.0817.21
eye test v1-0.440.74
eye trend v10.06-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)55.9061.30
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.710.83
league points30.0038.00
league rank11.002.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet8.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.2085.20
possession avg (last 5)49.2051.60
rest days4.044.04
scorer concentration0.260.19
season ppg1.431.81
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.800.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.2013.80
skill v10.640.89
sot against avg (last 5)6.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.605.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.40
squad age29.0129.09
state index-0.830.60
sterile dominance v11.050.22
threat rate (last 10)0.210.29
threat rate (last 3)0.160.29
threat rate (last 5)0.140.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20