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Yeni Malatyaspor 2–6 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sun, Dec 12, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Y. Kol

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win36%2.77
Yeni Malatyaspor win35%2.80
Draw29%3.32

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor +050%1.94
Alanyaspor +050%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Rayane Aabid · Yeni Malatyaspor
11'🟨Oussama Haddadi · Yeni Malatyaspor
14'⚽ (pen)Famara Diédhiou · Alanyaspor
16'🟨Nemanja Milunović · Alanyaspor
17'⚽Benjamin Tetteh · Yeni Malatyaspor
23'⚽Davidson · Alanyaspor
27'🟨Adem Büyük · Yeni Malatyaspor
33'⚽Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor
37'🟨Benjamin Tetteh · Yeni Malatyaspor
52'⚽João Novais · Alanyaspor
56'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score3
20Shots20
7On target13
8Corners5
6Fouls10
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.16
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.21
box share (last 5)0.660.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days314.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
Famara Diédhiou
· Alanyaspor
63'🟨João Novais · Alanyaspor
65'🟨Oussama Haddadi · Yeni Malatyaspor
65'🟥Oussama Haddadi · Yeni Malatyaspor
68'🟨Tayfur Bingöl · Alanyaspor
90'⚽Khouma Babacar · Alanyaspor
11.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.891.87
elo1437.551539.62
elo momentum (last 5)-23.78-38.56
eye test v1-0.69-0.55
eye trend v10.01-0.76
first sub minute (last 10)63.4067.90
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.851.78
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.730.74
league points14.0024.00
league rank18.006.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0081.40
possession avg (last 5)41.2050.40
rest days5.838.10
scorer concentration0.500.21
season ppg0.931.60
skill v1-0.300.44
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.00
state index-0.87-0.48
sterile dominance v10.240.19
threat rate (last 10)0.200.28
threat rate (last 3)0.200.22
threat rate (last 5)0.170.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00