← Süper Lig 2021 · Sun, Dec 5, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: H. Meler
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kayserispor win | 38% | 2.58 |
| Antalyaspor win | 33% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.27 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kayserispor +0 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Antalyaspor +0 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.75 |
| Over | 44% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 2 | Shots | 24 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Kadir Has Şehir Stadı |