⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Antalyaspor 3–0 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sat, Nov 27, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Şansalan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win39%2.45
Alanyaspor win32%3.08
Draw29%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor −0.2553%1.85
Antalyaspor −0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.93
Over49%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

35'🟨Chidozie Awaziem · Alanyaspor
40'⚽Bünyamin Balcı · Antalyaspor
54'🟨Amilton da Silva · Antalyaspor
59'🟨Tayfur Bingöl · Alanyaspor
65'🟨Tayfur Bingöl · Alanyaspor
65'🟥Tayfur Bingöl · Alanyaspor
68'⚽Paul Omo Mukairu · Antalyaspor
90'⚽Sherel Constancio Floranus · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots8
5On target1
2Corners1
9Fouls6
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.650.61
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
coach days57.00910.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.25
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.201.52
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.14
dominance (last 5)0.510.48
elo1460.141616.82
elo momentum (last 5)-3.2614.64
eye test v10.220.58
eye trend v10.21-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)51.8070.30
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.571.60
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.630.79
league points15.0033.00
league rank18.002.00
matches since blank9.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0080.60
possession avg (last 5)46.4048.40
rest days7.006.77
scorer concentration0.250.21
season ppg1.002.06
shot diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.8013.00
skill v1-0.110.26
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.40
squad age29.6029.62
state index-0.370.51
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.07
threat rate (last 10)0.260.29
threat rate (last 3)0.230.30
threat rate (last 5)0.230.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.60