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Kayserispor 2–1 Karagumruk

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sun, Oct 31, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: B. Şeker

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk win39%2.54
Kayserispor win34%2.84
Draw27%3.55

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk +053%1.85
Kayserispor +047%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.81
Under46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Lucas Biglia · Karagumruk
22'⚽Andrea Bertolacci · Karagumruk
29'🟨Emiliano Viviano · Karagumruk
49'🟨Fabio Borini · Karagumruk
61'🟥Derrick Luckassen · Karagumruk
73'⚽Mario Gavranović · Kayserispor
76'🟨Onur Bulut · Kayserispor
86'🟨Olivier Kemen · Kayserispor
88'🟨Onur Bulut · Kayserispor
88'🟥Onur Bulut · Kayserispor
90'⚽Mame Thiam · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
17Shots10
8On target6
7Corners5
23Fouls9
3Yellow cards3
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporKaragumruk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
box share (last 5)0.410.71
cards avg (last 5)2.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Şehir Stadı
coach days91.00730.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.407.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.202.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.400.41
elo1528.851614.95
elo momentum (last 5)15.6613.90
eye test v1-0.190.04
eye trend v10.26-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)53.1052.30
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.76
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.45
keeper form v10.720.73
league points21.0024.00
league rank8.006.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6084.80
possession avg (last 5)47.2058.40
rest days7.907.00
scorer concentration0.170.40
season ppg1.502.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.60-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.4010.40
skill v10.181.30
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.80
squad age28.4030.88
state index-0.070.27
sterile dominance v1-0.051.33
threat rate (last 10)0.220.18
threat rate (last 3)0.280.14
threat rate (last 5)0.250.17
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40