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Karagumruk 1–1 Hatayspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sun, Oct 24, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: H. Özkahya

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk win44%2.23
Hatayspor win30%3.20
Draw26%3.79

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk −0.2550%1.94
Hatayspor −0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.58
Under39%2.48

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi · Hatayspor
30'⚽Ayoub El Kaabi · Hatayspor
35'🟨Vegar Eggen Hedenstad · Karagumruk
38'⚽Aleksandar Pešić · Karagumruk
69'🟨Jure Balkovec · Karagumruk
87'🟨Emre Mor · Karagumruk
88'🟨Vegar Eggen Hedenstad · Karagumruk
88'🟥Vegar Eggen Hedenstad · Karagumruk
90'🟨Tunay Torun · Karagumruk
90'🟨Rúben Ribeiro · Hatayspor
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots9
3On target4
8Corners3
13Fouls19
5Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaragumrukHatayspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.710.71
cards avg (last 5)2.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAtatürk Olimpiyat Stadı
Mehdi Boudjemaa
· Hatayspor
coach days723.00449.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.000.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.006.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.423.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.09
dominance (last 5)0.410.58
elo1615.981639.84
elo momentum (last 5)9.7825.09
eye test v10.210.53
eye trend v1-0.18-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)52.3051.20
form points (last 5)10.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.851.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.35
keeper form v10.720.74
league points23.0020.00
league rank4.007.00
matches since blank3.0011.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6080.60
possession avg (last 5)59.0053.60
rest days6.905.73
scorer concentration0.360.24
season ppg2.091.82
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.204.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.4015.40
skill v11.320.60
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.105.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.00
squad age30.8028.64
state index0.460.82
sterile dominance v11.37-0.05
threat rate (last 10)0.190.27
threat rate (last 3)0.150.26
threat rate (last 5)0.170.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.80