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Goztep 0–1 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sat, Oct 23, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoğlan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win44%2.24
Goztep win29%3.45
Draw28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor +0.2551%1.93
Goztep +0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.89
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Adis Jahović · Goztep
45'🟨İrfan Can Eğribayat · Goztep
45'🟨Marek Hamšík · Trabzonspor
56'⚽Gervinho · Trabzonspor
59'🟨Vitor Hugo · Trabzonspor
66'🟨Soner Aydoğdu · Goztep
90'🟨Atınç Nukan · Goztep
90'🟨Hüseyin Türkmen · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Andreas Cornelius · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots6
3On target1
1Corners2
17Fouls13
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.47
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.580.57
cards avg (last 5)0.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGöztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı
coach days52.00356.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.422.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.08
dominance (last 5)0.440.51
elo1492.921702.94
elo momentum (last 5)5.5129.60
eye test v10.281.34
eye trend v10.10-0.33
first sub minute (last 10)55.1049.40
form points (last 5)6.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v1—0.79
league points14.0025.00
league rank14.003.00
matches since blank2.009.00
matches since clean sheet20.004.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8085.20
possession avg (last 5)47.2056.60
rest days6.236.00
scorer concentration0.250.29
season ppg1.172.27
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.6016.20
skill v1-0.441.22
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.606.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.336.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.206.80
squad age26.6827.81
state index-0.101.05
sterile dominance v1-0.190.33
threat rate (last 10)0.210.27
threat rate (last 3)0.230.29
threat rate (last 5)0.240.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.60