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Hatayspor 2–1 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2021 · Mon, Oct 18, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Z. Küçük

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor win51%1.89
Draw26%3.80
Gaziantep win23%4.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor −0.552%1.89
Gaziantep −0.548%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.73
Under44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'🟨Mame Biram Diouf · Hatayspor
39'🟨Muhammet Demir · Gaziantep
51'🟨Steven Caulker · Gaziantep
52'⚽ (pen)Mame Biram Diouf · Hatayspor
57'🟨Rúben Ribeiro · Hatayspor
67'🟨Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep
67'🟨Doğan Erdoğan · Gaziantep
73'⚽Mohammed Kesselly Kamara · Hatayspor
82'⚽Ángelo Sagal · Gaziantep
90'🟨Kenan Özer · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots7
6On target5
6Corners3
14Fouls9
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHataysporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.720.58
cards avg (last 5)2.801.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Hatay Stadyumu
coach days443.00170.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.807.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.606.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.332.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.17
dominance (last 5)0.600.51
elo1634.011539.49
elo momentum (last 5)30.60-20.61
eye test v10.83-0.44
eye trend v1-0.09-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)53.1052.10
form points (last 5)12.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.29
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
keeper form v10.670.53
league points17.0014.00
league rank8.0012.00
matches since blank10.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0078.40
possession avg (last 5)54.8048.80
rest days15.2715.17
scorer concentration0.250.14
season ppg1.701.40
shot diff avg (last 5)5.600.20
shots for avg (last 5)16.4011.60
skill v10.620.08
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.40
squad age27.4828.66
state index0.94-0.31
sterile dominance v1-0.090.01
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.280.24
threat rate (last 5)0.310.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20