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Yeni Malatyaspor 3–4 Karagumruk

← Süper Lig 2021 · Fri, Sep 17, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Göçek

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor win37%2.60
Karagumruk win35%2.84
Draw28%3.48

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor +052%1.86
Karagumruk +048%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.87
Under48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Benjamin Tetteh · Yeni Malatyaspor
23'🟨Erhun Öztümer · Karagumruk
24'⚽Mustafa Eskihellaç · Yeni Malatyaspor
30'⚽Andrea Bertolacci · Karagumruk
40'⚽Mounir Chouiar · Yeni Malatyaspor
44'⚽Aleksandar Pešić · Karagumruk
48'🟨Sadık Çiftpınar · Yeni Malatyaspor
49'🟨Didier N'Dong · Yeni Malatyaspor
55'🟨Jospin Nshimirimana · Yeni Malatyaspor
57'🟨Ervin Zukanović · Karagumruk
61'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score2
8Shots12
4On target5
2Corners5
13Fouls13
7Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporKaragumruk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.48
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.39
box share (last 5)0.590.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days228.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
Jospin Nshimirimana · Yeni Malatyaspor
61'🟥Jospin Nshimirimana · Yeni Malatyaspor
67'🟨Mounir Chouiar · Yeni Malatyaspor
67'🟨Andrea Bertolacci · Karagumruk
76'⚽Aleksandar Pešić · Karagumruk
83'🟨Philip Awuku Gameli · Yeni Malatyaspor
88'⚽Andrea Bertolacci · Karagumruk
90'🟨Rayane Aabid · Yeni Malatyaspor
686.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.993.12
elo1471.941553.69
elo momentum (last 5)3.6716.86
eye test v1-0.950.90
eye trend v1-0.14-0.47
first sub minute (last 10)58.7053.40
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.201.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.99
keeper form v10.710.66
league points6.007.00
league rank11.006.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2088.60
possession avg (last 5)36.4065.00
rest days6.006.13
scorer concentration—0.50
season ppg1.501.75
skill v1-0.882.09
sot against avg (last 5)6.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.405.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.206.00
state index-0.290.45
sterile dominance v1-0.861.49
threat rate (last 10)0.250.19
threat rate (last 3)0.250.20
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80