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Kortrijk 0–1 Standard

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 Β· Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: K. Van Damme

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk win36%2.71
Standard win35%2.80
Draw29%3.34

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk +051%1.93
Standard +049%2.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.84
Over47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Abdoul Tapsoba · Standard
72'🟨Mathieu Cafaro · Standard
77'⚽Selim Amallah · Standard
84'🟨Gojko Cimirot · Standard

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots10
1On target3
2Corners6
16Fouls19
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricKortrijkStandard
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.590.57
cards avg (last 5)2.003.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueGuldensporenstadion
coach days412.00262.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.02
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.80-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.202.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.622.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.05
dominance (last 5)0.400.43
elo1480.591488.96
elo momentum (last 5)-14.02-21.25
eye test v1-0.19-1.03
eye trend v1-0.23-0.29
first sub minute (last 10)60.6063.90
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.560.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.740.82
league points40.0036.00
league rank13.0015.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6074.60
possession avg (last 5)50.4049.60
rest days7.906.79
scorer concentration0.240.23
season ppg1.141.03
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.00-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.808.60
skill v10.04-0.20
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.202.40
squad age25.6624.45
state index-0.55-0.47
sterile dominance v10.140.37
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.18
threat rate (last 5)0.230.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.00