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Club Brugge 2–0 Kortrijk

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Sat, Mar 12, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: N. Verboomen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win58%1.65
Draw23%4.04
Kortrijk win18%6.01

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk −152%1.85
Club Brugge −148%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.88
Under48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

49'🟨Kevin Vandendriessche · Kortrijk
50'⚽ (pen)Dino Hotić · Club Brugge
51'🟨Marlos Moreno · Kortrijk
66'⚽Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge
67'🟨Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
22Shots6
4On target0
6Corners5
19Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeKortrijk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.05
box share (last 5)0.580.60
cards avg (last 5)1.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydelstadion
coach days131.00404.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.13
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-3.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.207.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.642.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.14
dominance (last 5)0.570.46
elo1693.471485.89
elo momentum (last 5)27.18-27.72
eye test v10.810.27
eye trend v10.010.35
first sub minute (last 10)51.0060.60
form points (last 5)11.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)3.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.181.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.600.20
keeper form v1—0.74
league points100.0040.00
league rank1.0013.00
matches since blank12.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)62.4079.60
possession avg (last 5)47.8055.20
rest days6.917.00
scorer concentration0.230.24
season ppg1.671.18
shot diff avg (last 5)3.00-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.6013.00
skill v1-1.410.62
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.904.30
sot for avg (last 3)7.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.404.80
squad age23.1725.18
state index1.02-0.50
sterile dominance v1-1.610.44
threat rate (last 10)0.330.27
threat rate (last 3)0.360.27
threat rate (last 5)0.370.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00