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Mechelen 2–2 Charleroi

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Boterberg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen win41%2.38
Charleroi win32%3.12
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charleroi −0.2551%1.88
Mechelen −0.2549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.69
Under42%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Geoffry Hairemans · Mechelen
12'⚽Hugo Cuypers · Mechelen
41'🟨Vinícius Souza · Mechelen
49'⚽Stelios Andreou · Charleroi
57'🟨Adem Zorgane · Charleroi
59'🟨Stelios Andreou · Charleroi
73'🟨Rob Schoofs · Mechelen
73'⚽ (pen)Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Charleroi
85'🟨Ryota Morioka · Charleroi
90'🟨Jackson Tchatchoua · Charleroi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
10Shots14
3On target5
4Corners3
12Fouls6
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMechelenCharleroi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.590.51
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
coach days1319.00254.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.321.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.11
dominance (last 5)0.460.53
elo1589.091541.45
elo momentum (last 5)11.12-16.64
eye test v10.210.05
eye trend v10.480.06
first sub minute (last 10)66.6053.20
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v10.700.66
league points53.0048.00
league rank7.009.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0078.60
possession avg (last 5)51.6053.60
rest days7.815.91
scorer concentration0.310.30
season ppg1.611.41
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.801.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.2012.60
skill v1-0.030.42
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
squad age26.4424.26
state index0.26-0.26
sterile dominance v10.120.27
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.24
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20