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Kortrijk 2–3 St. Gilloise

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Sat, Mar 5, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Boterberg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise win56%1.67
Draw24%3.98
Kortrijk win20%5.38

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise +0.7552%1.88
Kortrijk +0.7548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.92
Under49%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Faïz Selemani · Kortrijk
13'⚽Casper Nielsen · St. Gilloise
18'🟨Christian Burgess · St. Gilloise
43'🟨Siebe Van Der Heyden · St. Gilloise
67'⚽Ismael Kandouss · St. Gilloise
76'⚽Faïz Selemani · Kortrijk
82'🟨Aleksandar Radovanović · Kortrijk
82'🟨Deniz Undav · St. Gilloise
85'🟨Muhammed Badamosi · Kortrijk
87'⚽Deniz Undav · St. Gilloise

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
10Shots17
3On target7
3Corners13
10Fouls9
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKortrijkSt. Gilloise
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.590.58
cards avg (last 5)2.603.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGuldensporenstadion
coach days397.00673.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.803.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.693.02
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.02
dominance (last 5)0.550.57
elo1492.191687.03
elo momentum (last 5)-32.6816.81
eye test v10.650.14
eye trend v10.25-0.41
first sub minute (last 10)59.5068.90
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.521.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.55
keeper form v10.740.87
league points40.0065.00
league rank13.002.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0073.40
possession avg (last 5)59.8048.80
rest days6.107.09
scorer concentration0.190.33
season ppg1.212.03
shot diff avg (last 5)2.402.40
shots for avg (last 5)16.6012.60
skill v11.14-0.36
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.40
squad age26.1226.47
state index-0.490.90
sterile dominance v10.45-0.36
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.280.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.602.20