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Gent 4–0 Seraing United

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Wed, Feb 23, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Vergoote

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent win73%1.32
Draw18%6.00
Seraing United win9%11.27

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Seraing United −1.7553%1.88
Gent −1.7547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.58
Under39%2.43

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Matisse Samoise · Gent
16'⚽Laurent Depoitre · Gent
20'⚽Tarik Tissoudali · Gent
23'⚽Tarik Tissoudali · Gent
45'🟨Ibrahima Cisse · Seraing United
46'⚽Matisse Samoise · Gent
90'🟨Yahya Nadrani · Seraing United

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
13Shots7
5On target1
3Corners8
8Fouls5
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGentSeraing United
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.790.54
cards avg (last 5)2.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGHELAMCO-arena
coach days449.0053.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.003.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.11
dominance (last 5)0.610.44
elo1694.821435.91
elo momentum (last 5)12.39-18.27
eye test v10.25-0.79
eye trend v1-0.090.41
first sub minute (last 10)67.6059.40
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.25
keeper form v10.670.61
league points52.0026.00
league rank6.0018.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6073.00
possession avg (last 5)52.4041.20
rest days11.1011.92
scorer concentration0.310.30
season ppg1.730.90
shot diff avg (last 5)4.20-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.4010.40
skill v10.07-0.89
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.002.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.80
squad age28.4323.94
state index0.69-0.78
sterile dominance v10.16-0.68
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.00