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Beerschot VA 3–3 Waregem

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Sat, Jan 29, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: B. Put

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Beerschot VA win39%2.48
Waregem win34%2.82
Draw27%3.64

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Waregem −0.2555%1.76
Beerschot VA −0.2545%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.65
Under42%2.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Apostolos Konstantopoulos · Beerschot VA
30'⚽Dereck Kutesa · Waregem
41'🟨Pierre Bourdin · Beerschot VA
42'⚽ (pen)Zinho Gano · Waregem
44'🟨Dereck Kutesa · Waregem
45'⚽Dion De Neve · Waregem
73'⚽Lawrence Shankland · Beerschot VA
80'🟨Laurens De Bock · Waregem
90'🟨Dion Cools · Waregem
90'⚽ (pen)Ilias Sebaoui · Beerschot VA

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3
18Shots8
7On target3
13Corners1
12Fouls16
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBeerschot VAWaregem
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.630.62
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOlympisch Stadion
coach days150.0059.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.601.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.993.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.13
dominance (last 5)0.400.47
elo1441.141478.27
elo momentum (last 5)9.8219.66
eye test v10.20-0.24
eye trend v10.430.06
first sub minute (last 10)54.9059.70
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)3.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v1—0.66
league points16.0026.00
league rank19.0016.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet9.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6071.40
possession avg (last 5)45.8052.20
rest days2.802.90
scorer concentration0.220.39
season ppg0.620.96
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.00-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.0011.80
skill v1-0.54-0.32
sot against avg (last 5)7.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.00
squad age28.1729.32
state index-0.64-0.25
sterile dominance v1-0.26-0.01
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.260.20
threat rate (last 5)0.230.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60