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Mechelen 0–1 Anderlecht

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Sun, Jan 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Boterberg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win64%1.52
Draw21%4.92
Mechelen win15%7.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen +1.2551%1.88
Anderlecht +1.2549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.52
Under37%2.64

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Joshua Zirkzee · Anderlecht
70'🟨Marian Shved · Mechelen
72'🟨Jordi Vanlerberghe · Mechelen
85'🟨Amir Murillo · Anderlecht
89'🟨Vinícius Souza · Mechelen
89'🟨Kristoffer Olsson · Anderlecht

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
3Shots8
0On target5
4Corners4
12Fouls6
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMechelenAnderlecht
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.590.76
cards avg (last 5)1.400.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
coach days1271.00540.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.22
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.000.60
corners against avg (last 5)9.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.006.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.572.04
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.06
dominance (last 5)0.450.67
elo1570.751685.51
elo momentum (last 5)-35.3915.55
eye test v10.120.94
eye trend v10.390.03
first sub minute (last 10)61.3061.60
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.601.80
goals against avg (last 5)3.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.262.07
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.70—
league points39.0042.00
league rank7.005.00
matches since blank0.009.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6085.20
possession avg (last 5)48.0062.40
rest days8.097.00
scorer concentration0.320.21
season ppg1.561.68
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.407.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.4015.60
skill v1-0.491.59
sot against avg (last 5)5.602.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.205.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.606.00
squad age26.6625.87
state index-0.281.18
sterile dominance v1-0.510.89
threat rate (last 10)0.220.27
threat rate (last 3)0.280.24
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.20