← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Sun, Jan 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Boterberg
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Anderlecht win | 64% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.92 |
| Mechelen win | 15% | 7.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Mechelen +1.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Anderlecht +1.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.52 |
| Under | 37% | 2.64 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 8 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne |