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Oostende 1–2 Antwerp

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Fri, Jan 21, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Put

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp win55%1.75
Draw25%3.91
Oostende win20%5.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oostende +0.7551%1.93
Antwerp +0.7549%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.78
Under46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Radja Nainggolan · Antwerp
48'⚽Zech Medley · Oostende
60'⚽Michael Frey · Antwerp
70'⚽Michel Ange Balikwisha · Antwerp
88'🟨Vincent Koziello · Oostende
89'🟨Birger Verstraete · Antwerp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots14
6On target5
5Corners8
8Fouls7
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOostendeAntwerp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.480.65
cards avg (last 5)2.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDiaz Arena
coach days569.00234.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.05
congestion 21d0.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.17
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.672.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.11
dominance (last 5)0.550.51
elo1454.361661.28
elo momentum (last 5)-7.8512.59
eye test v1-0.590.29
eye trend v10.22-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)57.0056.00
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v10.630.76
league points23.0042.00
league rank17.004.00
matches since blank0.0010.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)62.8079.00
possession avg (last 5)48.4049.00
rest days25.995.30
scorer concentration0.450.41
season ppg1.001.83
shot diff avg (last 5)2.601.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.8012.80
skill v1-1.350.15
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.804.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.80
squad age22.6825.96
state index-0.330.70
sterile dominance v1-0.920.03
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.240.26
threat rate (last 5)0.280.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.60