← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Tue, Jan 18, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: W. De Cremer
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| St. Gilloise win | 70% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.59 |
| Seraing United win | 11% | 8.98 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| St. Gilloise +1.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Seraing United +1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.48 |
| Under | 36% | 2.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand