⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Mechelen 4–3 Gent

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Wed, Dec 15, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: E. Lambrechts

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent win52%1.83
Draw25%3.93
Mechelen win22%4.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent +0.553%1.83
Mechelen +0.547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.74
Under45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Nikola Storm · Mechelen
33'⚽Tarik Tissoudali · Gent
36'⚽Kerim Mrabti · Mechelen
50'⚽Laurent Depoitre · Gent
54'⚽Nikola Storm · Mechelen
60'⚽ (pen)Kerim Mrabti · Mechelen
68'⚽Tarik Tissoudali · Gent
70'⚽Nikola Storm · Mechelen
87'🟨Vinícius Souza · Mechelen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots22
5On target9
4Corners10
13Fouls10
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMechelenGent
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.600.68
cards avg (last 5)1.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
coach days1232.00379.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.204.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.808.20
corners volatility (last 10)4.123.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.05
dominance (last 5)0.410.58
elo1606.141697.27
elo momentum (last 5)-10.2132.73
eye test v1-0.560.79
eye trend v1-0.190.24
first sub minute (last 10)60.5062.20
form points (last 5)7.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.55
keeper form v10.670.83
league points33.0036.00
league rank8.005.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet8.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4078.40
possession avg (last 5)56.0056.20
rest days3.113.01
scorer concentration0.300.29
season ppg1.651.80
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.204.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.0014.40
skill v10.280.57
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.806.00
squad age27.9128.71
state index-0.110.94
sterile dominance v10.710.26
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.27
threat rate (last 5)0.190.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00