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Kortrijk 0–2 Club Brugge

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Sat, Dec 4, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Put

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win38%2.60
Kortrijk win34%3.05
Draw28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk +0.2554%1.79
Club Brugge +0.2546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.76
Over46%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽Rabbi Matondo · Club Brugge
37'🟨Marlos Moreno · Kortrijk
37'🟨Leonardo Lopes · Club Brugge
44'🟨Sambou Sissoko · Kortrijk
45'🟨Edgaras Utkus · Club Brugge
50'🟨Dimitar Velkovski · Club Brugge
74'⚽Rabbi Matondo · Club Brugge
83'🟨Álex Millán · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots17
1On target5
7Corners4
17Fouls25
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKortrijkClub Brugge
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
box share (last 5)0.670.64
cards avg (last 5)2.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGuldensporenstadion
coach days306.0033.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.721.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.18
dominance (last 5)0.500.63
elo1496.241604.20
elo momentum (last 5)17.8911.69
eye test v10.451.15
eye trend v10.110.47
first sub minute (last 10)61.0063.40
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.710.60
league points22.0043.00
league rank12.001.00
matches since blank5.006.00
matches since clean sheet4.0011.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0067.80
possession avg (last 5)48.2046.40
rest days7.006.21
scorer concentration0.290.13
season ppg1.221.34
shot diff avg (last 5)0.607.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.4016.80
skill v1-0.08-1.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.905.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.007.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.206.80
squad age26.0823.90
state index0.080.40
sterile dominance v1-0.38-1.40
threat rate (last 10)0.290.31
threat rate (last 3)0.300.45
threat rate (last 5)0.280.36
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60