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Club Brugge 1–2 Charleroi

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 Β· Sat, Nov 20, 03:15 PM UTC Β· ref: L. Visser

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win39%2.55
Charleroi win33%3.16
Draw27%3.50

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charleroi βˆ’0.2552%1.88
Club Brugge βˆ’0.2548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.85
Over48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Ryota Morioka · Charleroi
8'⚽Loic Bessile · Charleroi
38'🟨Rabbi Matondo · Club Brugge
51'🟨Marco Ilaimaharitra · Charleroi
54'🟨Loic Bessile · Charleroi
66'🟨Leonardo Lopes · Club Brugge
75'🟨Ryota Morioka · Charleroi
89'🟨Joris Kayembe · Charleroi
90'⚽Jesper Daland · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
24Shots11
7On target4
3Corners3
13Fouls13
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeCharleroi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.630.62
cards avg (last 5)2.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueJan Breydelstadion
coach days19.00142.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.762.80
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.10
dominance (last 5)0.590.54
elo1588.541578.91
elo momentum (last 5)-9.9932.82
eye test v10.090.79
eye trend v10.23-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)64.4056.00
form points (last 5)5.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.75
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.610.73
league points37.0024.00
league rank1.008.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet8.001.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.8082.60
possession avg (last 5)47.0048.60
rest days0.8113.81
scorer concentration0.170.33
season ppg1.281.50
shot diff avg (last 5)4.402.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.6015.40
skill v1-1.090.45
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.005.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.80
squad age23.5023.98
state index-0.150.59
sterile dominance v1-0.63-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.280.32
threat rate (last 3)0.290.30
threat rate (last 5)0.250.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.60