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Kortrijk 1–1 Beerschot VA

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Sat, Nov 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Denil

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk win52%1.99
Beerschot VA win24%4.75
Draw24%4.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Beerschot VA −0.551%1.90
Kortrijk −0.549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Lawrence Shankland · Beerschot VA
23'🟨Thibault De Smet · Beerschot VA
48'🟨Mohamed Réda Halaïmia · Beerschot VA
55'🟨Pape Habib Gueye · Kortrijk
56'⚽ (pen)Raphael Holzhauser · Beerschot VA
57'🟨Ramiro Vaca · Beerschot VA
65'🟨Pierre Bourdin · Beerschot VA
89'⚽Faïz Selemani · Kortrijk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
21Shots9
7On target4
11Corners6
10Fouls16
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKortrijkBeerschot VA
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.590.64
cards avg (last 5)2.801.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGuldensporenstadion
coach days278.0066.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.808.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.652.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.10
dominance (last 5)0.450.49
elo1490.521450.68
elo momentum (last 5)-0.138.20
eye test v1-0.080.13
eye trend v1-0.320.55
first sub minute (last 10)57.7044.70
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.15
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v10.730.63
league points19.006.00
league rank11.0019.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2072.80
possession avg (last 5)46.0040.00
rest days7.047.04
scorer concentration0.310.27
season ppg1.270.40
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.8014.60
skill v1-0.30-1.00
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.40
squad age26.6626.32
state index-0.16-0.24
sterile dominance v1-0.63-1.55
threat rate (last 10)0.260.29
threat rate (last 3)0.250.41
threat rate (last 5)0.300.36
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40