← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Sat, Oct 30, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: B. Put
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Charleroi win | 54% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.26 |
| AS Eupen win | 21% | 4.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Charleroi −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| AS Eupen −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.66 |
| Under | 42% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade du Pays de Charleroi |