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Kortrijk 1–0 Oostende

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 Β· Sat, Oct 23, 04:30 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Lardot

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk win48%2.20
Oostende win26%4.00
Draw26%3.95

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk βˆ’0.551%1.92
Oostende βˆ’0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.57
Under39%2.49

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Ante Palaversa · Kortrijk
29'🟨Kristof D'Haene · Kortrijk
32'🟨Anton Tanghe · Oostende
43'⚽Pape Habib Gueye · Kortrijk
60'🟨Steven Fortes · Oostende

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots12
5On target0
5Corners7
9Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricKortrijkOostende
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.580.71
cards avg (last 5)2.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueGuldensporenstadion
coach days264.00479.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.15
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.952.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.09
dominance (last 5)0.430.38
elo1478.351524.10
elo momentum (last 5)3.0017.42
eye test v10.12-0.12
eye trend v1-0.10-0.53
first sub minute (last 10)57.5058.50
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v1β€”0.67
league points15.0017.00
league rank13.0010.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.009.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4067.60
possession avg (last 5)43.6044.40
rest days7.917.00
scorer concentration0.270.47
season ppg1.151.42
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-7.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.6010.20
skill v1-0.71-1.19
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.60
squad age26.4524.78
state index-0.32-0.03
sterile dominance v1-0.92-0.58
threat rate (last 10)0.270.28
threat rate (last 3)0.320.21
threat rate (last 5)0.300.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80