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Mechelen 2–2 Waregem

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Sat, Oct 23, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Vergoote

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen win63%1.57
Draw19%5.69
Waregem win17%6.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen −1.2551%1.89
Waregem −1.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over73%1.33
Under27%3.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Hugo Cuypers · Mechelen
7'⚽Sandy Walsh · Mechelen
10'⚽Zinho Gano · Waregem
16'⚽Abdoulaye Sissako · Waregem
40'🟨Ibrahima Seck · Waregem
41'🟨Cameron Humphreys · Waregem

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
17Shots14
7On target3
11Corners7
6Fouls8
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMechelenWaregem
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.620.70
cards avg (last 5)2.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
coach days1179.003614.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.21
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-5.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.408.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.501.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.16
dominance (last 5)0.410.35
elo1623.911485.78
elo momentum (last 5)51.23-22.95
eye test v10.300.09
eye trend v10.430.04
first sub minute (last 10)57.8065.10
form points (last 5)15.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.202.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.10
keeper form v10.670.68
league points22.0013.00
league rank3.0015.00
matches since blank8.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6073.40
possession avg (last 5)48.0044.80
rest days6.107.00
scorer concentration0.350.44
season ppg1.831.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.20-8.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.609.40
skill v1-0.22-0.63
sot against avg (last 5)5.007.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.40
squad age26.0326.72
state index0.99-0.58
sterile dominance v1-0.01-0.38
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.230.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40