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Anderlecht 7–2 Mechelen

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Sun, Sep 12, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Lardot

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win60%1.70
Draw23%4.55
Mechelen win18%6.14

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht −153%1.83
Mechelen −147%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.55
Under38%2.55

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Benito Raman · Anderlecht
36'⚽Nikola Storm · Mechelen
49'⚽Christian Kouamé · Anderlecht
57'⚽Christian Kouamé · Anderlecht
60'🟨Kristoffer Olsson · Anderlecht
61'⚽Amir Murillo · Anderlecht
74'⚽Francis Amuzu · Anderlecht
85'⚽Yari Verschaeren · Anderlecht
87'⚽Joshua Zirkzee · Anderlecht
90'⚽Onur Kaya · Mechelen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots8
9On target3
5Corners3
9Fouls5
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnderlechtMechelen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.710.61
cards avg (last 5)1.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLotto Park
coach days407.001138.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.09
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.406.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.673.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.14
dominance (last 5)0.600.46
elo1647.691585.95
elo momentum (last 5)-4.29-34.17
eye test v10.63-0.38
eye trend v10.43-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)55.2057.80
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.16
h2 goals (last 10)1.201.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.630.65
league points7.007.00
league rank15.0014.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.0020.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.0074.60
possession avg (last 5)56.8052.60
rest days13.7915.70
scorer concentration0.290.38
season ppg1.401.17
shot diff avg (last 5)5.00-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.2011.20
skill v11.21-0.01
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.60
squad age25.0827.06
state index0.34-0.28
sterile dominance v10.430.53
threat rate (last 10)0.230.20
threat rate (last 3)0.320.18
threat rate (last 5)0.280.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00