⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Oostende 0–2 Waregem

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Sun, Aug 29, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Van Driessche

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oostende win57%1.83
Draw24%4.33
Waregem win20%5.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Waregem −152%1.88
Oostende −148%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over67%1.43
Under33%2.91

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Jelle Vossen · Waregem
15'🟨Cameron Humphreys · Waregem
38'🟨Théo Ndicka Matam · Oostende
51'🟨Thierry Ambrose · Oostende
60'🟨Bassem Srarfi · Waregem
63'🟨Makhtar Gueye · Oostende
63'🟨Jack Hendry · Oostende
63'🟨David Hubert · Waregem
67'🟨Nick Bätzner · Oostende
84'⚽Jelle Vossen · Waregem

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
22Shots12
3On target6
11Corners1
13Fouls17
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOostendeWaregem
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.690.60
cards avg (last 5)3.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDiaz Arena
coach days424.003559.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.206.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.581.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.12
dominance (last 5)0.430.42
elo1531.521489.45
elo momentum (last 5)10.89-15.71
eye test v1-0.130.11
eye trend v1-0.290.18
first sub minute (last 10)55.1062.80
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.490.97
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.570.67
league points9.006.00
league rank11.0015.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.0020.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.0080.60
possession avg (last 5)40.8050.60
rest days9.017.21
scorer concentration0.380.57
season ppg1.800.86
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.20-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.8012.20
skill v1-1.390.40
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.40
squad age23.2125.90
state index-0.07-0.65
sterile dominance v1-1.200.28
threat rate (last 10)0.280.23
threat rate (last 3)0.240.22
threat rate (last 5)0.290.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00