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AS Eupen 1–2 Seraing United

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 Β· Sat, Aug 28, 04:30 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Vergoote

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Eupen win58%1.67
Draw24%4.23
Seraing United win18%5.53

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Seraing United βˆ’153%1.85
AS Eupen βˆ’147%2.05

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.59
Under40%2.45

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Ablie Jallow · Seraing United
48'⚽Youssef Maziz · Seraing United
51'⚽Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni​ Β· Seraing United
67'🟨Emmanuel Agbadou · AS Eupen
73'🟨Boris Lambert · AS Eupen
82'🟨Edo Kayembe · AS Eupen
90'⚽ (og)Guillaume Dietsch · AS Eupen

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots9
2On target4
7Corners1
8Fouls5
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricAS EupenSeraing United
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10β€”
box share (last 5)0.610.42
cards avg (last 5)2.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadion am Kehrweg
coach days819.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.05β€”
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.77β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.15
dominance (last 5)0.480.43
elo1574.911503.24
elo momentum (last 5)67.74-9.61
eye test v10.63-0.53
eye trend v1-0.20-0.51
first sub minute (last 10)57.1058.00
form points (last 5)13.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.32β€”
h2 goals (last 10)1.10β€”
ht lead rate (last 20)0.35β€”
keeper form v10.790.65
league points15.006.00
league rank2.0013.00
matches since blank8.002.00
matches since clean sheet10.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4075.40
possession avg (last 5)42.4047.60
rest days7.007.09
scorer concentration0.170.60
season ppg2.141.20
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.408.60
skill v1-0.70-0.27
sot against avg (last 5)5.805.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.804.71
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.40
squad age25.9724.49
state index0.85-0.37
sterile dominance v1-1.210.32
threat rate (last 10)0.330.19
threat rate (last 3)0.320.16
threat rate (last 5)0.340.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.60β€”