⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Seraing United 2–3 Oostende

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 Β· Sat, Aug 14, 04:30 PM UTC Β· ref: B. Put

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oostende win44%2.30
Seraing United win29%3.40
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Seraing United +0.2551%1.90
Oostende +0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.80
Under46%2.07

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Maxime D'Arpino · Oostende
29'🟨Marius Mouandilmadji · Seraing United
43'🟨Alfons Amade · Oostende
45'⚽Youssef Maziz · Seraing United
47'⚽Makhtar Gueye · Oostende
49'⚽Thierry Ambrose · Oostende
63'🟨Guillaume Dietsch · Seraing United
63'🟨Thierry Ambrose · Oostende
67'🟨Alfons Amade · Oostende
67'πŸŸ₯Alfons Amade Β· Oostende
73'⚽

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots12
3On target7
3Corners6
7Fouls17
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSeraing UnitedOostende
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.480.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.38
blown lead rate (last 20)β€”0.05
box share (last 5)0.400.65
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade du Pairay
Nick BΓ€tzner
Β· Oostende
83'⚽Youssef Maziz · Seraing United
85'🟨Zakaria Silini · Seraing United
85'🟨Kenny Rocha Santos · Oostende
88'🟨Youssef Maziz · Seraing United
coach daysβ€”409.00
comeback rate (last 20)β€”0.15
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)β€”0.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.202.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.006.40
corners volatility (last 10)β€”1.37
defensive leak (last 5)β€”0.12
dominance (last 5)β€”0.48
elo1501.181528.61
elo momentum (last 5)1.1829.88
eye test v10.090.31
eye trend v1-0.53-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)57.6052.30
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)β€”1.91
h2 goals (last 10)β€”1.00
ht lead rate (last 20)β€”0.25
keeper form v10.640.59
league points3.006.00
league rank16.005.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6769.40
possession avg (last 5)47.4044.40
rest days6.005.90
scorer concentrationβ€”0.40
season ppg1.002.00
shot diff avg (last 5)β€”-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)β€”13.00
skill v1-0.53-1.02
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.005.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.00
squad age24.0923.38
state index-0.150.28
sterile dominance v10.09-1.13
threat rate (last 10)0.190.29
threat rate (last 3)0.190.31
threat rate (last 5)0.190.31
venue ppg (last 5)β€”1.80