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St. Gilloise 2–0 Kortrijk

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 Β· Sat, Aug 14, 02:15 PM UTC Β· ref: W. De Cremer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise win59%1.67
Draw24%4.20
Kortrijk win17%6.00

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk βˆ’152%1.87
St. Gilloise βˆ’148%2.03

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Dante Vanzeir · St. Gilloise
10'🟨Ante Palaversa · Kortrijk
15'🟨Timothy Derijck · Kortrijk
39'🟨Trent Sainsbury · Kortrijk
43'🟨Lucas Rougeaux · Kortrijk
52'⚽Senne Lynen · St. Gilloise
54'🟨Teddy Chevalier · Kortrijk
64'πŸŸ₯Mathias Fixelles Β· Kortrijk
83'🟨Marlos Moreno · Kortrijk

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
24Shots2
8On target2
10Corners2
11Fouls20
0Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSt. GilloiseKortrijk
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.41β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.41β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)β€”0.05
box share (last 5)0.62β€”
cards avg (last 5)β€”2.40
coach days470.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Joseph MariΓ«n
194.00
comeback rate (last 20)β€”0.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)β€”0.17
corner diff avg (last 5)β€”-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)β€”4.40
corners for avg (last 5)β€”3.60
corners volatility (last 10)β€”1.94
defensive leak (last 5)β€”0.13
dominance (last 5)β€”0.45
elo1530.951482.21
elo momentum (last 5)β€”29.30
eye test v10.26-0.14
eye trend v1β€”-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)65.0054.40
form points (last 5)β€”9.00
goal diff avg (last 5)β€”0.00
goals against avg (last 5)β€”1.80
goals for avg (last 5)β€”1.80
goals volatility (last 10)β€”1.34
h2 goals (last 10)β€”0.80
ht lead rate (last 20)β€”0.20
keeper form v1β€”0.63
league points6.006.00
league rank6.003.00
matches since blank1.008.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0069.60
possession avg (last 5)47.6741.00
rest days7.006.81
scorer concentration0.67β€”
season ppg1.502.00
shot diff avg (last 5)β€”-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)β€”10.60
skill v1-0.02-1.23
sot against avg (last 5)3.005.80
sot for avg (last 10)β€”4.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.674.60
squad age26.1627.86
state index-0.030.06
sterile dominance v1-0.15-0.95
threat rate (last 10)β€”0.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.27
venue ppg (last 5)β€”1.80