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Mechelen 3–2 Antwerp

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 · Sun, Jul 25, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: N. Laforge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen win42%2.60
Antwerp win31%3.60
Draw27%3.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp −0.555%1.76
Mechelen −0.545%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.69
Under43%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Michael Frey · Antwerp
56'⚽Manuel Benson · Antwerp
60'⚽ (og)Ritchie De Laet · Mechelen
66'🟨Sandy Walsh · Mechelen
73'⚽Ferdy Druijf · Mechelen
74'⚽Ferdy Druijf · Mechelen
76'🟨Rob Schoofs · Mechelen
79'🟨Birger Verstraete · Antwerp
90'🟨Jelle Bataille · Antwerp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
18Shots10
9On target5
13Corners2
12Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMechelenAntwerp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.700.69
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
coach days1089.0054.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.26
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.772.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.12
dominance (last 5)0.530.38
elo1610.921643.11
elo momentum (last 5)19.95-5.91
eye test v10.23-0.70
eye trend v1-0.86-0.43
first sub minute (last 10)65.7071.00
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.08
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.630.63
matches since blank12.001.00
matches since clean sheet15.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0082.20
possession avg (last 5)52.4047.60
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)2.40-5.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.8012.60
skill v10.100.36
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)6.703.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.60
squad age27.7427.75
state index0.630.11
sterile dominance v10.230.79
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.17
threat rate (last 5)0.230.15
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40