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Oostende 0–3 Charleroi

← Jupiler Pro League 2021 Β· Sat, Jul 24, 06:45 PM UTC Β· ref: E. Lambrechts

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oostende win42%2.30
Charleroi win31%3.27
Draw27%3.53

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charleroi βˆ’0.2550%1.94
Oostende βˆ’0.2550%1.94

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.89
Under49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Chris Bedia · Charleroi
50'⚽Anass Zaroury · Charleroi
58'🟨Jules Van Cleemput · Charleroi
62'🟨Robbie D'Haese · Oostende
83'🟨Makhtar Gueye · Oostende
85'⚽Joris Kayembe · Charleroi
90'🟨Marko Kvasina · Oostende

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots10
3On target6
9Corners2
13Fouls9
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricOostendeCharleroi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.660.54
cards avg (last 5)0.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueDiaz Arena
coach days388.0023.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.05
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.200.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.406.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.102.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.16
dominance (last 5)0.590.47
elo1520.641534.71
elo momentum (last 5)-10.23-41.18
eye test v10.260.07
eye trend v1-0.20-0.29
first sub minute (last 10)52.5053.60
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.870.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v10.60β€”
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet10.006.00
matches since win0.0011.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6076.60
possession avg (last 5)46.8051.20
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)5.00-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.8013.20
skill v1-0.480.08
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.605.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.40
squad age23.5928.51
state index-0.03-0.85
sterile dominance v1-0.52-0.03
threat rate (last 10)0.290.24
threat rate (last 3)0.300.30
threat rate (last 5)0.270.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00