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Sochaux 2–1 Bastia

← Ligue 2 2021 Β· Sat, Apr 30, 05:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Bollengier

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win56%1.70
Draw27%3.60
Bastia win17%6.09

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux βˆ’0.7550%1.93
Bastia βˆ’0.7550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.61
Over41%2.39

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Lloyd Palun · Bastia
20'🟨Kylian Kaiboue · Bastia
56'🟨Yacouba Sylla · Bastia
68'⚽ (og)Anthony Robic · Sochaux
73'🟨Steve Ambri · Sochaux
79'⚽ (og)Florentin Pogba · Bastia
90'🟨Aldo Kalulu · Sochaux
90'⚽Valentin Henry · Sochaux

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots4
3On target0
5Corners1
17Fouls15
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxBastia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.590.47
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Bonal
coach days1246.00211.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.322.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.10
dominance (last 5)0.430.46
elo1568.891521.68
elo momentum (last 5)39.51-1.59
eye test v1-0.29-0.90
eye trend v1-0.110.39
first sub minute (last 10)63.5063.30
form points (last 5)13.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.47
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.40
keeper form v1β€”0.59
league points68.0049.00
league rank5.0010.00
matches since blank11.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4074.20
possession avg (last 5)52.8045.20
rest days7.927.92
scorer concentration0.230.22
season ppg1.841.32
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.20-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.609.00
skill v10.63-0.52
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.102.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.60
squad age27.3028.80
state index0.60-0.10
sterile dominance v10.840.08
threat rate (last 10)0.210.18
threat rate (last 3)0.180.22
threat rate (last 5)0.180.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20