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Bastia 2–1 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2021 · Fri, Apr 22, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kherradji

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bastia win35%2.77
Draw33%2.92
Paris FC win32%3.03

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bastia +053%1.86
Paris FC +047%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.51
Over36%2.66

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Dominique Guidi · Bastia
39'🟨Joris Sainati · Bastia
45'⚽Dominique Guidi · Bastia
55'🟨Ousmane Camara · Paris FC
69'🟨Morgan Guilavogui · Paris FC
81'⚽Moustapha Name · Paris FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots18
4On target8
3Corners8
14Fouls18
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBastiaParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.490.57
cards avg (last 5)2.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Armand-Césari
coach days203.00325.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.16
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.742.23
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.12
dominance (last 5)0.470.47
elo1511.341583.24
elo momentum (last 5)-12.55-2.96
eye test v1-1.12-1.02
eye trend v10.400.09
first sub minute (last 10)60.7056.10
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.420.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.45
keeper form v10.730.76
league points46.0069.00
league rank11.002.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6080.80
possession avg (last 5)48.0052.40
rest days3.043.04
scorer concentration0.230.21
season ppg1.281.92
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.208.00
skill v1-0.300.55
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.302.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.202.00
squad age28.0728.25
state index-0.420.03
sterile dominance v10.471.06
threat rate (last 10)0.170.17
threat rate (last 3)0.160.12
threat rate (last 5)0.160.15
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00