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Grenoble 3–0 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2021 · Tue, Apr 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw35%2.70
Valenciennes win33%3.10
Grenoble win32%3.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble +050%1.95
Valenciennes +050%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.43
Over33%2.92

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Abiezer Jeno · Grenoble
31'⚽ (pen)Jordan Tell · Grenoble
45'🟨Florian Michel · Grenoble
63'🟨Allan Linguet · Valenciennes
65'🟨Manuel De Iriondo · Grenoble
83'🟨Franck Bambock · Grenoble
85'⚽Joris Correa · Grenoble
88'⚽Achille Anani · Grenoble
90'🟨Emmanuel Ntim · Valenciennes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots7
4On target4
1Corners5
22Fouls14
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrenobleValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.13
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.520.51
cards avg (last 5)2.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Alpes
coach days139.001053.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.003.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.472.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.11
dominance (last 5)0.400.41
elo1439.111402.80
elo momentum (last 5)9.17-18.82
eye test v1-1.11-0.63
eye trend v10.26-0.62
first sub minute (last 10)49.1062.80
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.78—
league points39.0037.00
league rank15.0017.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.8070.80
possession avg (last 5)40.6043.20
rest days3.043.04
scorer concentration0.170.23
season ppg1.111.06
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)6.409.00
skill v1-1.21-0.95
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.203.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.00
squad age27.2726.22
state index-0.25-0.73
sterile dominance v1-0.12-0.27
threat rate (last 10)0.180.22
threat rate (last 3)0.140.24
threat rate (last 5)0.160.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20