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Guingamp 2–4 Toulouse FC

← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Apr 9, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Landry

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Toulouse FC win48%2.00
Draw29%3.35
Guingamp win23%4.39

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp +0.551%1.92
Toulouse FC +0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Rafael Ratão · Toulouse FC
31'⚽El-Hadji Ba · Guingamp
34'⚽Mehdi Merghem · Guingamp
38'⚽Rhys Healey · Toulouse FC
40'🟨Mikkel Desler · Toulouse FC
48'⚽Rhys Healey · Toulouse FC
59'🟨Rafael Ratão · Toulouse FC
68'🟨Stijn Spierings · Toulouse FC
72'🟨Mehdi Merghem · Guingamp
74'🟨Stephen Quemper · Guingamp
75'⚽Rhys Healey · Toulouse FC
81'🟨Souleymane Diarra · Guingamp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
16Shots14
6On target6
7Corners2
13Fouls13
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGuingampToulouse FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.53
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.520.56
cards avg (last 5)2.000.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Roudourou
coach days343.00312.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.17
corner diff avg (last 5)2.000.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.412.01
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.12
dominance (last 5)0.490.58
elo1487.031655.70
elo momentum (last 5)21.807.10
eye test v1-0.331.44
eye trend v10.140.20
first sub minute (last 10)68.5060.00
form points (last 5)9.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.50
keeper form v10.660.71
league points44.0067.00
league rank9.001.00
matches since blank5.009.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2086.20
possession avg (last 5)53.0062.80
rest days6.837.00
scorer concentration0.300.25
season ppg1.332.09
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.404.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.4014.00
skill v10.531.71
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.505.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.007.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.407.00
squad age26.9225.05
state index0.320.80
sterile dominance v10.351.19
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.250.29
threat rate (last 5)0.240.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.00