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Rodez 1–1 Niort

← Ligue 2 2021 Β· Sat, Apr 2, 05:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Kherradji

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez win38%2.60
Draw32%3.00
Niort win30%3.28

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort βˆ’0.2555%1.76
Rodez βˆ’0.2545%2.17

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.50
Over35%2.70

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'⚽Joris Chougrani · Rodez
33'⚽ (og)Lionel Mpasi Nzau · Niort
41'🟨Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao · Rodez
49'🟨Guy-Marcelin Kilama · Niort

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
7Shots9
2On target6
5Corners8
17Fouls10
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRodezNiort
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.650.44
cards avg (last 5)3.600.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Paul Lignon
coach days2467.00670.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.403.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.401.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.891.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.12
dominance (last 5)0.470.43
elo1415.551443.37
elo momentum (last 5)-26.957.32
eye test v1-0.15-1.16
eye trend v10.450.02
first sub minute (last 10)60.9059.20
form points (last 5)2.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.520.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.730.63
league points35.0045.00
league rank17.007.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win13.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4077.00
possession avg (last 5)42.0043.20
rest days13.9613.96
scorer concentration0.200.27
season ppg1.131.41
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.407.00
skill v1-0.53-0.40
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.402.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.20
squad age27.1624.04
state index-1.25-0.33
sterile dominance v1-0.470.30
threat rate (last 10)0.240.21
threat rate (last 3)0.260.22
threat rate (last 5)0.250.16
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.60