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Sochaux 2–0 Rodez

← Ligue 2 2021 Β· Sat, Mar 19, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: B. Varela

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win54%1.85
Draw30%3.39
Rodez win16%6.23

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez βˆ’0.7551%1.93
Sochaux βˆ’0.7549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under66%1.46
Over34%2.83

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Gaetan Weissbeck · Sochaux
3'🟨Pierre Bardy · Rodez
7'🟨Lorenzo Rajot · Rodez
13'⚽Aldo Kalulu · Sochaux
36'⚽Rassoul Ndiaye · Sochaux
45'🟨Joris Chougrani · Rodez
50'🟨Florentin Pogba · Sochaux
83'🟨Abdallah Ndour · Sochaux
90'🟨Steve Ambri · Sochaux
90'🟨Julien Celestine · Rodez

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
18Shots4
7On target4
5Corners3
11Fouls18
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxRodez
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.590.65
cards avg (last 5)2.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Bonal
coach days1204.002453.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.08
corner diff avg (last 5)3.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.403.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.571.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.14
dominance (last 5)0.490.52
elo1508.541424.67
elo momentum (last 5)-22.35-18.24
eye test v10.06-0.25
eye trend v1-0.170.49
first sub minute (last 10)62.0062.70
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
keeper form v10.680.76
league points49.0035.00
league rank5.0015.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.0012.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2074.00
possession avg (last 5)54.4041.00
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.240.20
season ppg1.631.17
shot diff avg (last 5)0.001.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.8011.40
skill v10.44-0.81
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.80
squad age27.7125.97
state index-0.36-1.07
sterile dominance v10.58-0.83
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.32
threat rate (last 5)0.210.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40