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Guingamp 3–1 Nancy

← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Mar 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miguelgorry

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win47%2.04
Draw29%3.25
Nancy win24%4.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nancy −0.552%1.88
Guingamp −0.548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.32

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Baptiste Roux · Guingamp
36'🟨William Bianda · Nancy
37'⚽Youssouf M'Changama · Guingamp
56'⚽Youssouf M'Changama · Guingamp
60'🟨Jérémy Livolant · Guingamp
76'⚽Saliou Ciss · Nancy

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
14Shots14
5On target4
11Corners6
15Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGuingampNancy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.600.57
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Roudourou
coach days322.0077.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.622.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.07
dominance (last 5)0.470.50
elo1458.521397.06
elo momentum (last 5)-6.2918.03
eye test v1-0.630.17
eye trend v1-0.190.02
first sub minute (last 10)68.9051.60
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.481.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.710.59
league points38.0023.00
league rank13.0021.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2075.60
possession avg (last 5)51.8047.40
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.320.30
season ppg1.230.77
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.40-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.4012.20
skill v10.54-0.25
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.004.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.80
squad age25.9725.16
state index-0.40-0.28
sterile dominance v10.57-0.28
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.28
threat rate (last 5)0.210.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20