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Le Havre AC 2–4 Caen

← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Mar 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen win36%2.74
Draw33%2.87
Le Havre AC win31%3.17

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen +053%1.81
Le Havre AC +047%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.49
Over35%2.73

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Ismaël Boura · Le Havre AC
34'🟨Nuno Da Costa · Caen
38'⚽Nuno Da Costa · Caen
44'🟨Amir Richardson · Le Havre AC
50'🟨Johann Lepenant · Caen
56'🟨Djibril Diani · Caen
58'🟨Matthis Abline · Le Havre AC
64'🟨Prince Oniangué · Caen
71'⚽Jamal Thiaré · Le Havre AC
76'🟨Jamal Thiaré · Le Havre AC
77'🟨Saël Kumbedi · Le Havre AC
80'🟥Saël Kumbedi · Le Havre AC
81'⚽ (pen)Jessy Deminguet · Caen
82'🟨Jessy Deminguet · Caen
84'🟨Quentin Cornette · Le Havre AC
85'⚽Benjamin Jeannot · Caen
86'⚽Matthis Abline · Le Havre AC
89'🟨Pierre Gibaud · Le Havre AC
90'🟨Alexandre Bonnet · Le Havre AC
90'🟨Souleymane Isaak Touré · Le Havre AC
90'⚽Jessy Deminguet · Caen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots14
6On target6
7Corners4
22Fouls18
9Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Havre ACCaen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.540.62
cards avg (last 5)0.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Océane
coach days992.00291.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.601.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.083.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.13
dominance (last 5)0.570.63
elo1493.731462.67
elo momentum (last 5)5.3420.16
eye test v10.160.11
eye trend v10.420.27
first sub minute (last 10)63.9054.60
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.620.68
league points47.0037.00
league rank6.0014.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8076.20
possession avg (last 5)50.2049.00
rest days3.833.83
scorer concentration0.270.29
season ppg1.521.23
shot diff avg (last 5)4.005.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.6013.40
skill v10.22-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
squad age25.7427.30
state index-0.18-0.02
sterile dominance v10.26-0.44
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.30
threat rate (last 5)0.220.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40