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Pau FC 0–1 Grenoble

← Ligue 2 2021 · Tue, Mar 15, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC win46%2.15
Draw31%3.10
Grenoble win23%4.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble −0.555%1.77
Pau FC −0.545%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.51
Over37%2.68

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Mahamadou Dembele · Pau FC
27'🟨Quentin Daubin · Pau FC
28'🟨Eddy Sylvestre · Pau FC
29'⚽ (pen)Yoric Ravet · Grenoble
34'🟨Abdel Hakim Abdallah · Grenoble
46'🟨Romain Armand · Pau FC
54'🟨Jordy Gaspar · Grenoble
64'🟨Jordy Gaspar · Grenoble
64'🟥Jordy Gaspar · Grenoble
71'🟨Loïc Nestor · Grenoble
77'🟨Brice Maubleu · Grenoble
80'🟨Xavier Kouassi · Pau FC
85'🟨Achille Anani · Grenoble

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
16Shots5
2On target2
6Corners2
15Fouls23
5Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPau FCGrenoble
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.430.51
cards avg (last 5)3.002.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Nouste Camp
coach days622.00104.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.07
dominance (last 5)0.390.39
elo1456.271429.94
elo momentum (last 5)9.88-0.86
eye test v1-0.72-1.26
eye trend v10.030.05
first sub minute (last 10)56.6056.10
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.52
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
keeper form v10.760.71
league points38.0032.00
league rank11.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8071.20
possession avg (last 5)46.2043.80
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.180.16
season ppg1.311.07
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.20-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.808.20
skill v1-0.31-0.88
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.002.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.671.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.801.80
squad age26.1127.08
state index-0.10-0.49
sterile dominance v10.08-0.18
threat rate (last 10)0.220.19
threat rate (last 3)0.170.20
threat rate (last 5)0.210.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80