← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Mar 5, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 49% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.24 |
| Valenciennes win | 20% | 5.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Valenciennes −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.55 |
| Over | 38% | 2.54 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Ugo Bonnet · Valenciennes |
| 16' | 🟨 | Joris Sainati · Bastia |
| 20' | ⚽ (og) | Aly Abeid · Bastia |
| 59' | 🟨 | Aly Abeid · Valenciennes |
| 64' | 🟨 | Frank Magri · Bastia |
| 87' | 🟨 | Anthony Robic · Bastia |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lucas Chevalier · Valenciennes |
| 89' | 🟨 | Dominique Guidi · Bastia |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ugo Bonnet · Valenciennes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 20 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Valenciennes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Armand-Césari |
| coach days | 155.00 | 1008.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1510.10 | 1418.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.46 | 7.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| league points | 35.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 27.52 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |