← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Feb 26, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Hamel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 43% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Bastia win | 26% | 3.77 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Caen −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bastia −0.25 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.52 |
| Over | 36% | 2.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Benjamin Santelli · Bastia |
| 15' | ⚽ | Sébastien Salles-Lamonge · Bastia |
| 27' | ⚽ | Nuno Da Costa · Caen |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lloyd Palun · Bastia |
| 53' | ⚽ | Nuno Da Costa · Caen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Johann Lepenant · Caen |
| 75' | 🟨 | Julien Le Cardinal · Bastia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christophe Vincent · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 270.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.08 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1434.67 | 1520.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.81 | 0.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 30.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 28.86 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |