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Toulouse FC 4–0 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2021 · Mon, Feb 21, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Toulouse FC win61%1.57
Draw25%3.91
Le Havre AC win14%7.36

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC −152%1.89
Toulouse FC −148%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Stijn Spierings · Toulouse FC
22'🟨Victor Lekhal · Le Havre AC
23'⚽Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse FC
27'⚽Ado Onaiwu · Toulouse FC
47'🟨Alexandre Bonnet · Le Havre AC
48'⚽ (pen)Branco van den Boomen · Toulouse FC
71'🟨Rhys Healey · Toulouse FC
80'⚽Nathan N'Goumou · Toulouse FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
11Shots6
6On target1
2Corners4
8Fouls5
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricToulouse FCLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.690.52
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadium de Toulouse
coach days265.00966.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.05
corner diff avg (last 5)2.402.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.403.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.882.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.16
dominance (last 5)0.670.66
elo1630.381497.69
elo momentum (last 5)17.18-29.89
eye test v10.790.05
eye trend v1-0.31-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)49.9063.70
form points (last 5)11.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.631.15
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.35
keeper form v10.750.77
league points49.0038.00
league rank2.008.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0084.80
possession avg (last 5)64.2056.40
rest days9.247.00
scorer concentration0.270.26
season ppg1.961.52
shot diff avg (last 5)9.006.40
shots for avg (last 5)17.2013.20
skill v11.421.16
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.00
squad age24.6624.05
state index1.05-0.31
sterile dominance v10.810.74
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.22
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60