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Nimes 3–1 Grenoble

← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Feb 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Perreau Niel

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win46%2.10
Draw30%3.10
Grenoble win24%4.57

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble −0.552%1.86
Nimes −0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.59
Over39%2.44

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Abiezer Jeno · Grenoble
24'🟨Abiezer Jeno · Grenoble
24'🟥Abiezer Jeno · Grenoble
37'⚽Moussa Koné · Nimes
58'⚽Moussa Koné · Nimes
62'⚽Joris Correa · Grenoble
73'⚽Niclas Eliasson · Nimes
77'🟨Julien Ponceau · Nimes
82'🟨Antoine Valerio · Nimes
86'🟨Gaëtan Paquiez · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
20Shots7
11On target2
7Corners3
16Fouls8
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesGrenoble
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.560.48
cards avg (last 5)2.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Costières
coach days383.0080.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.001.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.832.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.09
dominance (last 5)0.410.47
elo1502.151439.98
elo momentum (last 5)-3.40-23.43
eye test v10.17-0.72
eye trend v10.150.19
first sub minute (last 10)62.4058.20
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.790.64
league points35.0028.00
league rank8.0016.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8077.80
possession avg (last 5)42.6049.60
rest days7.004.00
scorer concentration0.200.18
season ppg1.401.08
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.40-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.8010.20
skill v1-0.730.09
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.80
squad age24.7727.37
state index-0.17-0.66
sterile dominance v1-0.550.34
threat rate (last 10)0.230.18
threat rate (last 3)0.250.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20