⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

AJ Auxerre 1–1 Nancy

← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Feb 12, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Bollengier

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AJ Auxerre win57%1.65
Draw25%3.92
Nancy win18%5.66

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AJ Auxerre −0.7552%1.85
Nancy −0.7548%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Mamadou Thiam · Nancy
33'🟨Gaëtan Charbonnier · AJ Auxerre
38'🟨Théo Pellenard · AJ Auxerre
41'🟨Mathias Autret · AJ Auxerre
45'🟨Neil El Aynaoui · Nancy
45'⚽Gauthier Hein · AJ Auxerre

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots9
3On target4
6Corners5
17Fouls8
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAJ AuxerreNancy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.590.61
cards avg (last 5)2.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de l'Abbé Deschamps
coach days957.0042.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.001.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.006.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.872.68
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.22
dominance (last 5)0.520.44
elo1542.471373.25
elo momentum (last 5)-14.89-29.89
eye test v1-0.10-0.33
eye trend v1-0.90-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)66.9053.60
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-2.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.203.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.94
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
keeper form v10.680.64
league points39.0016.00
league rank5.0021.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.0010.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4073.80
possession avg (last 5)60.0046.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.430.29
season ppg1.630.67
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.409.60
skill v11.18-0.48
sot against avg (last 5)3.406.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.504.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.80
squad age28.1626.43
state index-0.17-1.31
sterile dominance v11.19-0.05
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.170.23
threat rate (last 5)0.190.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.00