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Sochaux 1–1 Amiens

← Ligue 2 2021 Β· Sat, Feb 5, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: F. Schneider

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win47%2.06
Draw30%3.30
Amiens win22%4.43

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens βˆ’0.551%1.93
Sochaux βˆ’0.549%2.06

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.57
Over38%2.72

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Maxime Do Couto · Sochaux
22'🟨Formose Mendy · Amiens
28'🟨Emmanuel Lomotey · Amiens
39'⚽Aliou Badji · Amiens
41'🟨Arnaud Lusamba · Amiens
63'🟨Bongani Zungu · Amiens
83'🟨Bongani Zungu · Amiens
83'πŸŸ₯Bongani Zungu Β· Amiens

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots7
6On target3
10Corners1
13Fouls13
0Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxAmiens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.510.70
cards avg (last 5)2.601.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Bonal
coach days1162.00249.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.602.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.223.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.10
dominance (last 5)0.650.52
elo1519.321473.10
elo momentum (last 5)13.25-1.88
eye test v10.060.30
eye trend v1-0.24-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)60.7061.60
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.49
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.720.80
league points41.0026.00
league rank4.0015.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8084.00
possession avg (last 5)58.8058.20
rest days14.0010.00
scorer concentration0.290.30
season ppg1.781.08
shot diff avg (last 5)6.40-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.4011.00
skill v10.691.21
sot against avg (last 5)2.002.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.60
squad age27.1325.67
state index0.32-0.25
sterile dominance v10.691.19
threat rate (last 10)0.230.19
threat rate (last 3)0.210.18
threat rate (last 5)0.220.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80