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Nimes 0–1 Dunkerque

← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Feb 5, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Lepaysant

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win59%1.63
Draw25%3.93
Dunkerque win16%6.39

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes −0.7555%1.76
Dunkerque −0.7545%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.76
Over46%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Jeremy Huysman · Dunkerque
28'🟨Leon Delpech · Nimes
48'🟨Moussa Koné · Nimes
53'🟨Malik Tchokounte · Dunkerque
61'🟨Driss Trichard · Dunkerque
67'🟥Elías Már Ómarsson · Nimes
73'⚽Kevin Rocheteau · Dunkerque
81'🟨Sidy Sarr · Nimes
81'🟨Iron Gomis · Dunkerque
90'🟨Julien Ponceau · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots8
3On target1
6Corners7
18Fouls22
4Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesDunkerque
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.13
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.500.16
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.660.61
cards avg (last 5)2.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Costières
coach days369.00645.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.203.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.362.26
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.12
dominance (last 5)0.430.34
elo1538.601385.26
elo momentum (last 5)29.58-22.67
eye test v10.58-1.88
eye trend v10.89-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)63.3062.40
form points (last 5)12.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v1—0.79
league points35.0019.00
league rank8.0020.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.0072.40
possession avg (last 5)42.8044.60
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.200.43
season ppg1.520.83
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.20-5.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.807.00
skill v1-1.15-0.73
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.702.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.331.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.801.00
squad age25.1326.95
state index0.53-1.22
sterile dominance v1-0.910.27
threat rate (last 10)0.210.16
threat rate (last 3)0.290.17
threat rate (last 5)0.280.15
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60