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Toulouse FC 4–1 Dijon

← Ligue 2 2021 · Sat, Feb 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Bollengier

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Toulouse FC win54%1.77
Draw26%3.80
Dijon win20%5.41

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dijon −0.7552%1.89
Toulouse FC −0.7548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.85
Over47%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Nathan N'Goumou · Toulouse FC
33'⚽Aurelien Scheidler · Dijon
44'⚽Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse FC
50'🟨Senou Coulibaly · Dijon
57'🟨Bafodé Diakité · Toulouse FC
65'⚽Rafael Ratão · Toulouse FC
81'⚽Ado Onaiwu · Toulouse FC
84'🟨Adama Fofana · Dijon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
15Shots12
5On target4
4Corners5
12Fouls17
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricToulouse FCDijon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.650.61
cards avg (last 5)3.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadium de Toulouse
coach days249.00188.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.14
corner diff avg (last 5)4.400.20
corners against avg (last 5)1.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.313.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.10
dominance (last 5)0.650.58
elo1612.841476.88
elo momentum (last 5)4.1040.98
eye test v10.380.55
eye trend v10.18-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)46.3053.50
form points (last 5)9.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.08
h2 goals (last 10)1.201.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
keeper form v10.730.70
league points43.0032.00
league rank2.009.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0074.20
possession avg (last 5)60.8052.80
rest days13.8313.83
scorer concentration0.320.30
season ppg1.871.33
shot diff avg (last 5)7.803.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.6014.20
skill v11.02-0.03
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.205.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.40
squad age24.7827.41
state index0.640.52
sterile dominance v10.65-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.280.28
threat rate (last 5)0.250.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.80