⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Toulouse FC 4–0 Nancy

← Ligue 2 2021 · Wed, Jan 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Toulouse FC win67%1.42
Draw21%4.73
Nancy win12%8.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nancy −1.2551%1.90
Toulouse FC −1.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟥Thomas Basila · Nancy
29'⚽Ado Onaiwu · Toulouse FC
30'⚽Denis Genreau · Toulouse FC
51'🟨Denis Genreau · Toulouse FC
55'⚽Branco van den Boomen · Toulouse FC
61'🟨William Bianda · Nancy
66'🟨Antonin Bobichon · Nancy
78'🟨Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse FC
88'⚽Rafael Ratão · Toulouse FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots9
8On target3
3Corners4
17Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricToulouse FCNancy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.670.75
cards avg (last 5)2.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadium de Toulouse
coach days232.0018.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.08
corner diff avg (last 5)5.201.00
corners against avg (last 5)1.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.822.35
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.17
dominance (last 5)0.610.52
elo1607.641396.44
elo momentum (last 5)-5.30-30.25
eye test v10.580.01
eye trend v1-0.190.33
first sub minute (last 10)49.0061.30
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.851.05
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.10
keeper form v10.690.64
league points39.0015.00
league rank4.0021.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.007.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6074.20
possession avg (last 5)59.6058.00
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.350.25
season ppg1.860.71
shot diff avg (last 5)6.601.20
shots for avg (last 5)16.8013.00
skill v10.990.31
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.40
squad age24.9124.39
state index0.49-0.70
sterile dominance v10.420.60
threat rate (last 10)0.260.21
threat rate (last 3)0.270.20
threat rate (last 5)0.280.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60